Big Gun Politics: Can Armed Political Parties Fairly Participate in Democratic Processes?

Contents
The Latest
PRC Background
Other Political Parties with Armed Wings
Can Armed Political Parties fairly Participate in Democratic Processes?
The Altalena: An Israeli Example
Conclusion

The Latest

The Popular Resistance Committee ("PRC"), a Palestinian terrorist group responsible for the deaths of Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans, has announced that it will form a political party to run in future Palestinian elections. It vowed, however, to keep its militia intact.

"We will be a political movement in every way," said the group's spokesman, "with media advisers, a political leadership and we will maintain the Salah a-Din Brigades which will be our military wing."

That raises the question: Can armed political parties fairly participate in democratic processes?

PRC Background

The PRC was formed in 2000 at the beginning of the second Palestinian intifada (uprising), and is based mainly out of Gaza. It's leadership consists of former Fatah members who are against peace with Israel, as well as members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It is also suspected of having ties with the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

The PRC has killed Israeli soldiers and civilians in the Gaza Strip and has wounded several Israelis by firing rockets into the Jewish State from Gaza. It claimed responsibility for a 2003 roadside bomb that killed several members of a U.S. diplomatic envoy in Gaza. It also boasted of killing Moussa Arafat, cousin of late PA President Yasser Arafat and former head of security, in 2005. In 2006, the PRC (along with Hamas) kidnapped Israeli Defense Forces ("IDF") Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who is still in captivity.

Other "Political Parties" with Armed Wings

To most in the West, a political party having an armed wing seems seems antithetical to democracy. But in the Middle East, there are plenty of examples of groups that have both political branches and a militia.

Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party has armed wings (separate from official PA security forces) associated with it, including Tanzim, Force 17, and the al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade. Similarly Hamas, the political party that won PA parliamentary elections in 2006, is best known for suicide bombings committed by its armed wing.

Hezbollah also has political and armed divisions. In the 2005 Lebanese parliamentary election, Hezbollah won 14 seats, and for a while had two members in the cabinet.

In Iraq, it seems as if all political parties have their own militaries.

Even Israeli political parties use to have armed wings, though this is no longer the case. More on Israel's transition in a moment.

Can Armed Political Parties fairly Participate in Democratic Processes?

The answer, exemplified by Hamas, seems to be yes. Hamas won the 2006 PA parliamentary election not because it intimidated voters with its militia, but because the ruling Fatah party was seen as corrupt.

On the other hand, having distinct armed wings creates a highly destabilizing atmosphere. Because Fatah refused to disband its militias, Hamas and other groups such as the PRC maintained theirs. And now the PA is in a state of near-civil war.

The Lebanese government has been in political gridlock for almost a year, partly because Hezbollah has refused to disarm. In addition, other terrorist groups are sprouting up, such as the al-Qaeda inspired Fatah al-Islam. And, as I wrote in a previous article, al-Qaeda sees its primary enemies as not only the West but also Shi'ites, whom they describe as infidels. An armed Shi'a Hezbollah only aggravates the situation.

And then there is Iraq. Enough said.


The Altalena: an Israeli Example

Before the rebirth of the Israel in 1948, militarized political parties were common. One political party that had a militia was known as the Revisionist Party (the forerunner of the modern-day Likud Party), and it advocated the creation of a Jewish State in all of British Mandate Palestine.

The military wing of the Revisionist Party, called the Irgun, was led by Menacham Begin. The Irgun initiated attacks against various British installations, such as the bombing of the King David Hotel that killed British Diplomats.

When the State of Israel declared its independence in May 1948, most militias agreed to disband or incorporate themselves into the IDF. The Irgun, however, still wanted to retain some independence.

In June of that year, over 900 Irgun men and tons of military supplies arrived in Israel aboard the Altalena to help fight the War of Independence. Menacham Begin insisted that at least some of the supplies should be earmarked for separate Irgun activity, though then leader of Israel David Ben Gurion concluded that the IDF should have the sole military authority in the Jewish State.

When Begin refused to give up all of the weapons, Ben Gurion ordered the IDF to take the Altalena by force. The IDF opened fire on the ship, killing 16 Irgun fighters and sinking the Altalena. In addition, 200 Irgun men were arrested.

After the incident, all militias were fully disbanded or incorporated into the IDF. Ben Gurion established rule of law, and cemented the concept that the option of force rested solely with the state.

Conclusion

So yes, an armed political party can fairly participate in democratic processes. The PRC may even be able to accomplish this feat. But it is only attempting to do so at the peril of the Palestinian people.

If the Palestinians, the Lebanese, or the Iraqis want peace and stability, they must first get their house in order. They (including ruling parties) must either get militias to disband by agreement, or they must initiate their own Altalena.

The rule of law demands nothing less.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 8/5/07

Israel and the Palestinian Territories
ISRAELI Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and PA President Mahmoud Abbas are scheduled to meet in the West Bank city of Jericho on Monday. The two are set to formulate a Declaration of Principles for a final settlement of the conflict. This, in turn, will be used as a basis for talks in a regional summit that U.S. Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice has planned for November.

There are several issues, beside final boundaries and a Palestinian "right of return," that complicate efforts for a final settlement. The first is that, after Hamas' bloody coup two months ago, Abbas no longer has any control over the Gaza Strip. The second is that Abbas' Fatah party is still seen by Palestinians as weak and corrupt. Its ability to enforce a peace agreement even in the West Bank is questionable. The third is Olmert's poor standing among Israelis. Olmert is less popular in Israel than President George W. Bush is in the United States, and Israelis may not trust him to ensure a fair and comprehensive peace.

OVER 300 members of terrorist groups associated with PA President Mahmoud Abbas have accepted an amnesty deal from Israel. Israel has promised to take these people aligned with Fatah, all located in the West Bank, off of its wanted list in exchange for them turning in their weapons and swearing off attacks on the Jewish State. The amnesty deal is part of a package of gestures that Israel is using to bolster Abbas' standing in the Palestinian territories.

Interestingly, members of Islamic Jihad, an Islamist terrorist group opposed to peace with Israel, have requested to be included in the amnesty. The Islamic Jihad leadership, however, has lambasted the amnesty and reaffirmed its commitment to destroy Israel.

Lebanon
RESIDENTS of the Christian city of Metn have gone to the polls to replace two assassinated Members of Parliament. Amin Gemayal, former president of Lebanon and father of one of the slain MP's, is contesting for his son's seat. His opponent is Kamil Khoury. Both candidates are Christian, though Gemayal is associated with the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Sinora while Khoury is aligned with the pro-Syria, Hezbollah-led opposition. The other seat is only being contested by pro-Western politician Mohammed al-Amin Itani.

MP's Pierre Gemayal and Walid Eido were murdered within the last year. Syria is suspected to be behind the slayings.

Iran
IRANIAN President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called on Israel to "go somewhere else." He stated that Israel should leave the region and a Palestinian state should crop up in its place. This comes after he has declared that Israel should be "wiped off the map" and hosted a Holocaust-denial conference.

His statement should also be viewed in the context of Iran's nuclear program. Iran has refused to suspend its nuclear activities, which the Islamic Republic has argued is purely for energy production. Western powers, however, are convinced it is also being used to develop a nuclear weapons program.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 7/22/07

Israel and the Palestinian Territories
PALESTINIAN Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has apparently made good on his pledge to crack down on Hamas in the West Bank. On Sunday his security services arrested 22 rival Hamas operatives in a 24-hour campaign against the terrorist group. This comes as members of terrorist groups associated with Abbas' Fatah party have pledged to end their attacks on Israel and turned in their weapons in return for being removed from Israel's wanted list. The question remains as to how many individuals have made that pledge, and whether Abbas is willing and able to enforce an end to attacks on Israel from his own party.

Syria
IRANIAN President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met in Damascus this past week with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Assad and Ahmadinejad reportedly struck a deal where Iran would fund for Syria $1 billion worth of advance weapons--including fighter jets, tanks, and missiles--and aid in Syrian nuclear and chemical weapons research. In return, Assad reportedly promised not to seek peace with Israel. Iran has denied the deal.

Turkey
EXIT Polls in Turkey's parliamentary elections show the religious-oriented Justice and Development Party [which goes by its Turkish initials "AKP"] won in a landslide against strictly secular parties. Preliminary polls give AKP 51.6%, while left-leaning Republican People's Party ["CHP"] won 15.2% and far-right National Action Party ["MHP"] won 13.7%.

The AKP is more accurately compared to the religious right in the U.S. rather than other "Islamist parties" such as Hamas in the Palestinian territories or Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is considered pro-business, and has overseen annual GDP growth of 7%. It also has worked to conform Turkish laws to fit European Union standards. But it wishes to permit more public expressions of religion in Turkey, such as allowing women to wear head-coverings in public universities or allowing politicians to publicly proclaim their faith. Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, imposed a strict separation of Mosque and State.

In recent months there has been tension between the current AKP government and the military, which considers itself the guardian of Turkish secularism. The military has initiated four coups since the 1960's; the latest occurred in 1997 when Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan was pressured to step down due to his militant Islamist views. The AKP has much milder views than Erbakan, but the military has accused the party of undermining Turkey's secular character.

In Turkish elections, voters select parties rather than candidates. The party with the most votes wins the most seats in the 550 member parliament. A party must receive at least 10% of the vote to gain seats. If a party takes more than 50% of the seats, they form the government; if no party receives an absolute majority of the seats, several parties may form a coalition government.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 7/15/07

A Summary of Interesting Stories throughout the Middle East

Israel and the Palestinian Territories
THE Foreign Ministers of Egypt and Jordan have postponed their trip to Israel until July 25th. The ministers had planned to visit Israel this past week to discuss the Saudi Peace Initiative, which envisions full Arab recognition of Israel in return for Israeli withdrawal from all of Gaza, West Bank, and East Jerusalem; the implementation of a Palestinian Right to Return; and the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel has accepted the Saudi initiative with reservations: 1) it will not grant a Right of Return to Israel itself, as that would lead to the demographic destruction of Israel as a Jewish State (though it supports a Right of Return to a future Palestinian State in the West Bank & Gaza); and 2) all of Jerusalem is Israel's eternal and undivided capital.

The postponement of the trip comes as Israel and the Arab League publicly voice their disagreement over the nature of the delegation. The Arab League had appointed Egypt and Jordan to discuss the Saudi Peace Initiative with Israel. Egypt and Jordan then announced that their Foreign Ministers would visit Israel to discuss the plan. Israel subsequently heralded the ministers' trip as the first time that the Arab League would send an official mission to the Jewish State. But the Secretary General of the Arab League balked at that description, stating that the ministers were only representing the governments of Egypt and Jordan. He further remarked, "The Arab League has no relation with Israel."

PALESTINIAN Authority ("PA") Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has confirmed PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad as head of a care-taker government. Fayyad had been serving as leader of an emergency government since Abbas dismissed Hamas ministers following their bloody coup in Gaza. Hamas spokesmen have deemed Fayyad's government "illegal" because, according to the PA constitution, the government must be confirmed by the PA parliament. The parliament, however, has been paralyzed due to Hamas' refusal to stand down in Gaza, Israel's imprisonment of half of Hamas members of parliament, and Abbas' refusal to allow his Fatah party to meet with members of Hamas.

ELDER statesman Shimon Peres has been sworn in as Israel's ninth president. Shimon Peres has been associated with each stage of Israel's history: he has served in almost every ministry since the founding of the state, including as prime minister; he was the architect of Israel's nuclear program and policy; and he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 along with Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat for his work in attempting to bring peace between Israel and its neighbors. Though the presidency is largely ceremonial (somewhat akin to the monarchy in Britain), Peres is an internationally respected figure and will bring much-needed positive attention to the Jewish State.

Lebanon
REPRESENTATIVES from 14 Lebanese parties have met in France in an attempt to ease political deadlock within the Arab state. Included in the meeting are delegates from Hezbollah, an organization that many Western and Arab countries view as perpetuating terrorism and instability.

Following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Shi'ite organization briefly had a wide following among Lebanese for its perceived victory over Israel. But it has since been widely criticized for starting the conflict when it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Hundreds of Lebanese citizens died, and there were millions of dollars worth of damage because Hezbollah based its military operations in civilian areas.

Furthermore, Hezbollah is criticized for attempting to block the international tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; for walking out of the Lebanese government and helping to block the convening of sessions of parliament; and for holding the interests of Syria and Iran above those of Lebanon.

Iran
AN Iranian article claiming that the Arab Kingdom of Bahrain is Iranian territory has caused fury around the Arab world (Click here for a regional map of Bahrain). Hossein Shariatmadari, a close confidant of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini, wrote that "public demand in Bahrain is the reunification of this province with its motherland, the Islamic Iran." The foreign minister of Iran has since traveled to Bahrain in order to quell tensions.

Historically there has been friction between Iran, a Farsi-speaking majority Shi'ite state, and Bahrain, an Arabic-speaking Sunni-led country. In the 1970's Iran laid claim to Bahrain, but the then British protectorate instead voted for independence. In recent times, Arab states of the Persian Gulf and throughout the Mideast have looked at Iran's growing influence and nuclear program with suspicion.

Citizens of Bahrain have gathered in front of the Iranian embassy in protest. Furthermore Egypt, the most populous Arab state, has railed against Shariatmadari's statements. So has the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Bahrain is a member along with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 7/8/07

A Summary of Interesting Stories throughout the Middle East

Israel & the Palestinian Territories
FOR the first time, representatives of the Arab League will make an official visit to Israel this coming Thursday. The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan--appointed by the Arab League to promote the Saudi Peace Initiative--will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

The Saudi Initiative calls for Israel to withdraw from all lands it captured in the 1967 Six Day War, including East Jerusalem, and implement a Palestinian right to return in exchange for full Arab recognition of Israel. PM Olmert has welcomed the plan, though has reservations on a pull back from East Jerusalem (which is part of Israel's capital) and resettlement of Palestinians in Israel proper.

The Arab League has traditionally been hostile to Israel, so this visit will indeed be a historic occasion. Upon its creation in 1945, the organization resolved to boycott all Jewish products originating from what was then British Mandate Palestine. The Arab League expanded the boycott when Israel gained independence in 1948. To this day, most Arab League member states continue to boycott products and services from Israel, and some states refuse to do business with any company that engages with Israel.

ISLAMIC Jihad and Hamas claimed responsibility for firing several Kassam rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip. The rockets caused no casualties, though a university building sustained damages.

PALESTINIAN lawyers have questioned the constitutionality of Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas' decision to appoint a new government without parliament's approval. Abbas tapped former World Bank official Salam Fayyad to head the government after firing Hamas representatives because of the violent coup staged in Gaza.

The Palestinian lawyers, who helped draft the constitution which was implemented in 2002, claim that Abbas was permitted to fire the Hamas lawmakers from the cabinet, but could not appoint a new government. The lawyers further stated that Abbas could not suspend parts of the constitution. Representative of Abbas responded that the PA is in a state of emergency, and thus Abbas' word is law.

Egypt
EGYPTIAN authorities seized over a ton of explosives in the Sinai Peninsula, in an area approximately 100 km from the Gaza border. Palestinian militants often use the Gaza border to smuggle in weapons and explosives for internecine fighting and to commit terrorist acts against Israel.

Lebanon
LEBANESE soldiers raided an apartment in Tripoli and seized members and weapons from an al-Qaeda inspired terrorist group. Fatah al-Islam (not to be confused with the mainstream Palestinian group Fatah) has for over a month been in armed battle with Lebanese forces. The group has used Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon as bases, though members from countries throughout the Arab world have been found. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has vowed to arrest or kill members of Fatah al-Islam, which has claimed responsibility for several bombings around Lebanon. Some suspect that the group is being directed by Syria, and its purpose is to destabilize Siniora's anti-Syrian government.

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On Bolstering Abbas

In a historic meeting between the leaders of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and Egypt, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has promised to transfer $35o million to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He also promised to release 250 Palestinian prisoners as a show of good faith. This announcement comes shortly after the United States and the European Union decided to lift the economic embargo against the Palestinian Authority, a result of Abbas sacking the Hamas government.

King Abdullah of Jordan and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak voiced their support for Abbas. The Quartet of Middle East Mediators (the U.S., U.N., E.U., and Russia) met today in Jerusalem, suggesting that they believe Israel can work with Abbas as a partner for peace. The Quartet has not quashed rumors that outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair will be its new envoy, further suggesting the group sees new momemtum for a peace process.

So is all of this faith that the international community (including Israel) has in Abbas misplaced? In previous posts (From the Horse's Mouth, They're Wrong) I have written how Abbas and his Fatah party are just as bad, if not worse, than Hamas because Abbas says all the right things but has no power or will to implement hard decisions. He gives hope to the Israelis, Palestinians, and international community yet always disappoints, leading to dispair and worse violence.

But shouldn't Israel and the international community at least try to work towards a peace settlement with Abbas, the "voice of moderation?" My mind and my gut says absolutely not, but the remnants of my bleeding heart liberalism past says perhaps. However, there must be strict monitering of any money, weapons, or prisoners released to Abbas & Fatah. Furthermore, Abbas & Fatah must meet certain benchmarks in order to show that they are truly partners. These include:

• Disbanding and disarming all non-state militias, including Fatah-related militias such as the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and Tanzim.
• Creating and enforcing a zero tolerance policy for crime and corruption.
• Ending all media incitement against Israel.

Once Abbas takes these steps, he will have proven that he is willing to make and implement difficult decisions. Only then can Israel and the international community take any further actions to bolster Abbas and work toward peace and a Palestinian state. If Abbas fails to take these steps, which he likely will, then Israel and all those who desire for peace must look for a different path.

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If Hamas Wants a Voice...

Daniel GP wrote in a comment to a recent post:

Pres. Bush praises Abu Mazen [a.k.a. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas] as a "voice that is a reasonable voice amongst the extremists". But what's the use of a voice in Gaza these days? We need to see results. A Fatah-led government unable or unwilling to stop Palestinian terrorism brings us no closer to peace than does a terrorist Hamas government.

Hamas must now take steps to ensure that it's voice is considered legitimate in the international community and to bring about a better situation for the Palestinians of Gaza. The immediate actions it must take is to enforce order in Gaza, release BBC reporter Alan Johnston, cease all rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel, and release Israeli Defense Force ("IDF") Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

Order

Hamas has already taken a step in the imposition of order in the Gaza Strip by beginning to collect unauthorized weapons. Though after Abbas became the leader of the Palestinian Authority he had promised to maintain "one law, one authority, one gun," he consistently failed to implement that policy. He had not wanted to use force against Palestinians, nor did he want to provoke a civil war. His inaction led exactly to the scenario that he had feared, and thus Hamas is now in charge of Gaza. And Hamas has no qualms about using force to compel compliance with its decisions.

Gaza has been a cesspool of chaos and violence ever since former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to unilaterally pull the Israeli Defense Forces out of the territory. The Palestinians want rule of law, and Hamas can and will enforce order. Once the chaos has ended, the Palestinians of Gaza can speak to the international community in one voice.

Alan Johnston

BBC reporter Alan Johnston was abducted from the Gaza Strip on March 12, 2007. Many foreign journalists had been kidnapped from Gaza in the past, though they were usually returned within a few days. At this point, Johnston has been in captivity for over 100 days, the most time of any of the kidnap victims.

Johnston's abduction has caused the largest international outcry amongst governments and journalists against the Palestinians. Sure, Israelis have been kidnapped, wounded, and brutally murdered, but the international community has taken issue with this incident.

Since conquering Gaza, Hamas has said that it is working to release Johnston. If it succeeds and Johnston is returned alive and unharmed, Hamas will be sending a signal to the world that it respects at least some principles of international behavior.

Stopping the Rockets

Since Israel pulled out of Gaza, Palestinian terrorist groups (including Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad) have increasingly used Qassam rockets to shell nearby Israeli towns. This has continued under the new Hamas regime. If Hamas wants to avert a humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip, it will need Israel's cooperation to bring in food, water, and electricity. And to ensure this cooperation, Hamas must end all Qassam attacks.

Gilad Shalit

On June 25, 2006, several terrorist groups (including Hamas) broke through the border between Israel and Gaza, killed several Israeli soldiers, and kidnapped IDF Cpl. Gilad Shalit. Hamas has not allowed the International Red Cross to visit Shalit, nor has it given any sign of life. The group maintains, however, that Shalit is alive and well.

Almost all Jewish Israelis are required to serve in the IDF. Thus Israelis quite literally view IDF soldiers as their fathers, brothers, sisters, sons and daughters. They are appalled and distressed when any IDF soldier is kidnapped. The capture of Shalit is an especially emotional issue in their conflict with the Palestinians.

The unilateral release of Shalit will instantly change Israelis' view of Hamas. It will prompt an easing of tensions between the two sides, alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, and spur a new hope that peace can be achieved with the Islamist group.

If Hamas releases Shalit, as well as restores order, releases Alan Johnston, and halts rocket fire, Hamas will show that it is an organization that can be dealt with. It will be a voice that Israel and the international community will not only be willing, but excited, to listen to.

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From the Horse's Mouth: They're Terrorists

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has finally come to the obvious conclusion: Hamas is a terrorist organization. Specifically, he said that members of this Palestinian Islamist party are "murderous terrorists." This should not be a radical statement, considering that (according to the Council on Foreign Relations) the group has killed over 500 people since 1993 using tactics including short-range rockets, small arms fire, and suicide bombings. Many, if not most, of the victims were innocent civilians. But it took the humiliation of Abbas' Fatah party in Gaza for him to finally see the light.

But, as I wrote in a previous posting, Abbas' party is no better. In fact, it may even be worse. With governments all over the world committed to Abbas' "moderate ideology," they continue to overlook the fact that Fatah does not have the discipline to commit its members, let alone non-Fatah Palestinians, to any peace settlement. Simply put, any agreement signed by Abbas wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on. And it is exactly this faux-agreement the global powers are pushing for.

It's no coincidence that Fatah was completely overpowered in the Gaza Strip. Even though Fatah had more gunmen, firepower, and Western-backing, Hamas had cohesion. They had the organization and common goals to forge ahead. This is why Hamas will eventually be the ruling power in all of the Palestinian territories.

Yes, Hamas is a terrorist group. And yes, Hamas (at least some parts) is committed to Israel's destruction. But they will see in their governance of Gaza that they have to deal with Israel, or else their "constituents" will die. They will have no food, water, or electricity, unless at least some coordination is made with the Jewish State. This may lead the way to future understandings, and possibly to a future peace deal, which they would have the power to enforce.

Richard Nixon opened relations with China. Menachem Begin signed an accord with Egypt. Hamas could be the key to peace with the Palestinians.

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They're Wrong-A Different View of Hamas' Conquest of the Gaza Strip

For an overview of recent events in the Gaza strip, click here.

Most analysis (i.e. this one from the Jerusalem Post) on Hamas' recent conquest of the Gaza Strip has focussed on the fact that, since Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas sacked the Hamas government, international aid will once again flow to the PA. This will strengthen the moderate tendencies of Abbas and his Fatah party, the thinking goes, and eventually lead to a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank. There will be glaring differences between the situations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians in Gaza, under the harsh rule of Hamas and its thugs and starved of international aid and sympathy, will overthrow the "Islamic Resistance Movement" and reunite with their West Bank brethren, coming under the umbrella of the peace settlement.

This analysis has several faulty assumptions. Number one is that Fatah is a moderate party. Yes, the party may be secular rather than fundamental Islamist, but via its militias Fatah has committed heinous crimes and terrorist acts against Israel. One of those militias is the Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, between 2002-2005 they have been responsible for terrorist attacks resulting in the death of at least 77 Israelis and countless wounded. Their tactics include shooting sprees, sniper attacks, and suicide bombings. The Brigade has often utilized teenagers and women to perpetrate these attacks. More recently (a week ago), the Brigade broke through the barrier between Gaza and Israel in a TV truck in an attempt to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

The second faulty assumption is that Abbas has any control over what happens on the ground in the West Bank. Ever since Abbas came to power in 2005, all of the Palestinian territories have descended into complete chaos and all of the promises & attempts to bring the PA under "one gun" have failed. There is nothing to suggest that this situation will change any time soon, or that members of his own party will abide by any agreement Abbas makes with Israel.

The third misconception is that Palestinians will rebel against Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Hamas will be able to impose something that has been desperately lacking: order. The group has already taken a step that both Abbas and Yasser Arafat were afraid to; they have started confiscating illegal guns. Unfortunately for Israel, Hamas' concept of "illegal" guns are any guns not used to attack the Jewish State. Nonetheless, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip will welcome a new sense of safety and those that do not will lack the weapons to take a stand. In addition, Hamas will continue to get funds for social services from Iran, and the European Union--which has been divided on the economic blockade against Hamas from the beginning--will likely resume aid to the Gaza Strip in the near future.

The difference between the situations in the West Bank & Gaza Strip will indeed be glaring, but not in the way that most analysts currently contend. The West Bank will continue to be chaotic with roaming gangs of gunmen, while the Gaza Strip will be relatively quiet and peaceful. Consequently, Hamas will gain popularity in the West Bank and lead a similar coup in that territory.

The question is whether Israel will be able to take advantage of this scenario. But that is for another posting...

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