Showing posts with label Terrorism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Terrorism. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Big Gun Politics: Can Armed Political Parties Fairly Participate in Democratic Processes?

Contents
The Latest
PRC Background
Other Political Parties with Armed Wings
Can Armed Political Parties fairly Participate in Democratic Processes?
The Altalena: An Israeli Example
Conclusion

The Latest

The Popular Resistance Committee ("PRC"), a Palestinian terrorist group responsible for the deaths of Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans, has announced that it will form a political party to run in future Palestinian elections. It vowed, however, to keep its militia intact.

"We will be a political movement in every way," said the group's spokesman, "with media advisers, a political leadership and we will maintain the Salah a-Din Brigades which will be our military wing."

That raises the question: Can armed political parties fairly participate in democratic processes?

PRC Background

The PRC was formed in 2000 at the beginning of the second Palestinian intifada (uprising), and is based mainly out of Gaza. It's leadership consists of former Fatah members who are against peace with Israel, as well as members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It is also suspected of having ties with the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

The PRC has killed Israeli soldiers and civilians in the Gaza Strip and has wounded several Israelis by firing rockets into the Jewish State from Gaza. It claimed responsibility for a 2003 roadside bomb that killed several members of a U.S. diplomatic envoy in Gaza. It also boasted of killing Moussa Arafat, cousin of late PA President Yasser Arafat and former head of security, in 2005. In 2006, the PRC (along with Hamas) kidnapped Israeli Defense Forces ("IDF") Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who is still in captivity.

Other "Political Parties" with Armed Wings

To most in the West, a political party having an armed wing seems seems antithetical to democracy. But in the Middle East, there are plenty of examples of groups that have both political branches and a militia.

Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party has armed wings (separate from official PA security forces) associated with it, including Tanzim, Force 17, and the al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade. Similarly Hamas, the political party that won PA parliamentary elections in 2006, is best known for suicide bombings committed by its armed wing.

Hezbollah also has political and armed divisions. In the 2005 Lebanese parliamentary election, Hezbollah won 14 seats, and for a while had two members in the cabinet.

In Iraq, it seems as if all political parties have their own militaries.

Even Israeli political parties use to have armed wings, though this is no longer the case. More on Israel's transition in a moment.

Can Armed Political Parties fairly Participate in Democratic Processes?

The answer, exemplified by Hamas, seems to be yes. Hamas won the 2006 PA parliamentary election not because it intimidated voters with its militia, but because the ruling Fatah party was seen as corrupt.

On the other hand, having distinct armed wings creates a highly destabilizing atmosphere. Because Fatah refused to disband its militias, Hamas and other groups such as the PRC maintained theirs. And now the PA is in a state of near-civil war.

The Lebanese government has been in political gridlock for almost a year, partly because Hezbollah has refused to disarm. In addition, other terrorist groups are sprouting up, such as the al-Qaeda inspired Fatah al-Islam. And, as I wrote in a previous article, al-Qaeda sees its primary enemies as not only the West but also Shi'ites, whom they describe as infidels. An armed Shi'a Hezbollah only aggravates the situation.

And then there is Iraq. Enough said.


The Altalena: an Israeli Example


Before the rebirth of the Israel in 1948, militarized political parties were common. One political party that had a militia was known as the Revisionist Party (the forerunner of the modern-day Likud Party), and it advocated the creation of a Jewish State in all of British Mandate Palestine.

The military wing of the Revisionist Party, called the Irgun, was led by Menacham Begin. The Irgun initiated attacks against various British installations, such as the bombing of the King David Hotel that killed British Diplomats.

When the State of Israel declared its independence in May 1948, most militias agreed to disband or incorporate themselves into the IDF. The Irgun, however, still wanted to retain some independence.

In June of that year, over 900 Irgun men and tons of military supplies arrived in Israel aboard the Altalena to help fight the War of Independence. Menacham Begin insisted that at least some of the supplies should be earmarked for separate Irgun activity, though then leader of Israel David Ben Gurion concluded that the IDF should have the sole military authority in the Jewish State.

When Begin refused to give up all of the weapons, Ben Gurion ordered the IDF to take the Altalena by force. The IDF opened fire on the ship, killing 16 Irgun fighters and sinking the Altalena. In addition, 200 Irgun men were arrested.

After the incident, all militias were fully disbanded or incorporated into the IDF. Ben Gurion established rule of law, and cemented the concept that the option of force rested solely with the state.

Conclusion

So yes, an armed political party can fairly participate in democratic processes. The PRC may even be able to accomplish this feat. But it is only attempting to do so at the peril of the Palestinian people.

If the Palestinians, the Lebanese, or the Iraqis want peace and stability, they must first get their house in order. They (including ruling parties) must either get militias to disband by agreement, or they must initiate their own Altalena.

The rule of law demands nothing less.

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Saturday, July 14, 2007

Major Palestinian Terrorist Organizations

Below you will find a short description for the major Palestinian terrorist organizations

al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades

Affiliation: Fatah; Popular Resistance Committee

Ideology: secular/nationalist

Base of Operations/Leadership: West Bank; Gaza

Brief History: First appeared in 2000, at the beginning of the Second (a.k.a. al-Aqsa) Intifada (uprising). Named after the al-Aqsa Mosque (a.k.a. the Dome of the Rock), which stands at an area that Jews call the Temple Mount (where the First and Second Temples existed in ancient Judea). Formed in reaction to then-Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon visiting the Temple Mount. Reportedly received payments from former Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. Is closely connected to Palestinian Authority ("PA") security services, and members likely still receive payments from current PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and his government.

Terrorist Incidents:

  • Jan. 2002 suicide bombing by female in Jerusalem that killed 1 and wounded 40
  • Mar. 2002 suicide bombing in Jerusalem cafe that killed 11 and wounded over 50
  • Nov. 2002 shooting at Israeli Kibbutz that killed 2 children, 3 adults, and wounded 7
  • Jan. 2003 suicide bombings in Tel Aviv that killed 23, wounded over 100
  • Jan. 2004 suicide bombing on a bus in Jerusalem that killed 11 and wounded 30
  • Mar. 2004 suicide bombing in Ashdod that killed 11
  • 78 separate rocket attacks between Apr. 2005 and Mar. 2007


Army of Islam

Affiliation: Popular Resistance Committee; influence by al-Qaeda

Ideology: Islamist

Base of Operations/Leadership: Gaza Strip

Brief History: First appeared in 2006. Leadership comes from the Dagmoush clan, a family in the Gaza Strip known for extortion, smuggling, and arms-dealing. Has variously coordinate and clashed with armed groups from Fatah and Hamas. Has demanded the release of leaders of al-Qaeda in return for freeing hostages.

Terrorist Incidents:
  • June 2006 kidnapping of Israeli Defense Forces Cpl. Gilad Shalit, killing 2 others
  • Mar. 2007 kidnapping of BBC Reporter Alan Johnston


Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)

Ideology: Secular/Marxist-Leninist

Base of Operations/Leadership: West Bank; Gaza Strip; Damascus, Syria

Brief History: The DFLP split from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine ("PFLP") in 1969 over leadership dispute. Emphasizes international Marxism over Palestinian nationalism. Rejected the 1993 Oslo Accords with Israel, though has since accepted them.

Terrorist Incidents:
  • 1974 guerrilla attack of school in Ma'alot killing 27 (mostly children), wounding 134
  • 1977 bombings in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv
  • 1984 grenade attack in Jerusalem, wounding 21
  • 1985 bus attack near Hebron
  • 1988 gasoline bombing of the car of then-Industry and Trade Minister Ariel Sharon
  • Nov. 2006, fired 3 rockets in Israel, no casualties
Iz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades

Affiliation: Hamas; Palestinian Resistance Committee

Ideology: Islamist

Base of Operations/Leadership: West Bank; Gaza Strip

Brief History: Established in 1987 as an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and as a major player in the First Intifada (uprising). Is dedicated to the destruction of Israel, and replacing it with an Islamic state. It's political wing, Hamas, initially refused to be part of the Palestinian Authority ("PA") because the PA was created after the 1993 Oslo Accords with Israel. Major player in the Second (Al-Aqsa) Intifada. Decided to participate in 2006 PA parliamentary elections, where it received a majority and formed a new government. Formed unity government with Fatah in early 2007 in attempt to end international boycott of PA. Ousted Fatah from Gaza Strip in June 2007 in violent military coup.

Terrorist Incidents:
  • Since 1993, various suicide bombings, rocket attacks, and small arms fire that have killed over 500.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)


Affiliation: Hezbollah; Iranian Revolutionary Guards

Ideology: Islamist

Base of Operations/Leadership: West Bank; Gaza Strip; Damascus, Syria; Lebanon

Brief History: Formed in late 1970's as an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Believed the Brotherhood had become to moderate. Seeks the destruction of Israel and the replacement with a Mideast pan-Islamic empire. Even though it is a Sunni group, receives funding from Iran (a Shi'a country). Frequently coordinates attacks with Hamas.

Terrorist Incidents:
  • Since 1988, various shooting, suicide bombings, firebombings, rocket/missile attacks
  • Between May 2005 and Feb. 2007, responsible for 18 dead and 186 wounded
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)

Ideology: Secular/Nationalist/Marxist-Leninist

Base of Operations/Leadership: West Bank; Gaza Strip; Damascus, Syria

Brief History: Established in 1967 in response to failure of Arab countries to destroy Israel in Six Day War. Seeks to destroy Israel and replace it with Marxist-Leninist Arab state. Rejects the 1993 Oslo Accords and Palestinian Authority. Has received funding from Syria, Iran, and Libya. Pioneered airplane hijacking.

Terrorist Incidents:
  • 1968, hijacked El Al airplane.
  • 1972, shooting at Lod International Airport, killing at least 24
  • 1976, hijacked Air France Airplane, landing it in Entebbe, Uganda. In famous raid, IDF freed 100 hostages, though 3 died
  • 2001, shot dead Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Ze'evi
  • Between 2004 and 2005, responsible for at least 3 deaths and 30 wounded from rocket attacks and suicide bombings

Tanzim

Affiliation: Fatah

Ideology: Secular/Nationalist

Base of Operations/Leadership: West Bank

Brief History: Founded in 1995 in opposition to Islamist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Also, wanted to ensure that those who had stayed in the West Bank and Gaza after 1967 war maintained a voice in Fatah. Until 1993, Fatah leadership (i.e. Arafat and his associates) was based in Tunisia, and once they came back to the PA had not allowed the younger generation to gain positions of power. Tanzim sought to rectify this. Lead by Marwan Barghouti, who has been in an Israeli prison since 2002 for multiple murder convictions. Barghouti has negotiated several ceasefires between Palestinian factions and Israel, and considered a future contender for Chairman of the PA. There has been speculation that Israel may free Barghouti in order to boost PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement.

Terrorist Incidents:
  • Between 2000 and 2002, various shootings, stabbings, bombings, suicide bombings, and rocket attacks resulting in at least 26 dead and 100 wounded.


--References--

1976: Israelis Rescue Entebbe Hostages in BBC.com (available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/4/newsid_2786000/2786967.stm).

Council on Foreign Relations (available at http://www.cfr.org/index.html).

Demands issued on Johnston tape
in BBC.com (May 9, 2007) (available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6637507.stm).

Yaakov Katz, Vilna'i: Let DFLP leader visit Ramallah in Jerusalem Post Online (July 13, 2007) (available at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1184168556149&pagename
=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull).

Yaakov Katz, Sneh: Exchange Barghouti for Schalit in Jerusalem Post Online (July 10, 2007) (available at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c=JPArticle&cid=
1183980036224&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull).

Elise Labbot, Militants issue Israel hostage demands in CNN.com (June 26, 2006) (available at http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/06/26/israel.soldier/index.html).

Paul Martin and Martin Fletcher, The moment of greatest danger in Times Online (June 18, 2007) (available at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1945825.ece).

MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base (available at http://tkb.org/Home.jsp).

Aaron D. Pina, Palestinian Factions, Congressional Research Services Report RS 21235 (June 8, 2005) (available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/index.html).

Profile: DFLP in BBC.com (Feb. 4, 2002) (available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1800092.stm).

Statement of Indictment: Marwan bin Khatib Barghouti in Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Aug. 14, 2002) (available at http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/MFAArchive/2000_2009
/2002/8/Marwan%20Barghouti%20Indictment%20-%20Appendix-%20Terrorist).

Weapon Survey (available at http://www.weaponsurvey.com/).

World Incidents Tracking System (available at http://wits.nctc.gov/Main.do).

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Sunday, July 8, 2007

Weekend News Wrapup- 7/8/07

A Summary of Interesting Stories throughout the Middle East

Israel & the Palestinian Territories
FOR the first time, representatives of the Arab League will make an official visit to Israel this coming Thursday. The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan--appointed by the Arab League to promote the Saudi Peace Initiative--will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

The Saudi Initiative calls for Israel to withdraw from all lands it captured in the 1967 Six Day War, including East Jerusalem, and implement a Palestinian right to return in exchange for full Arab recognition of Israel. PM Olmert has welcomed the plan, though has reservations on a pull back from East Jerusalem (which is part of Israel's capital) and resettlement of Palestinians in Israel proper.

The Arab League has traditionally been hostile to Israel, so this visit will indeed be a historic occasion. Upon its creation in 1945, the organization resolved to boycott all Jewish products originating from what was then British Mandate Palestine. The Arab League expanded the boycott when Israel gained independence in 1948. To this day, most Arab League member states continue to boycott products and services from Israel, and some states refuse to do business with any company that engages with Israel.

ISLAMIC Jihad and Hamas claimed responsibility for firing several Kassam rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip. The rockets caused no casualties, though a university building sustained damages.

PALESTINIAN lawyers have questioned the constitutionality of Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas' decision to appoint a new government without parliament's approval. Abbas tapped former World Bank official Salam Fayyad to head the government after firing Hamas representatives because of the violent coup staged in Gaza.

The Palestinian lawyers, who helped draft the constitution which was implemented in 2002, claim that Abbas was permitted to fire the Hamas lawmakers from the cabinet, but could not appoint a new government. The lawyers further stated that Abbas could not suspend parts of the constitution. Representative of Abbas responded that the PA is in a state of emergency, and thus Abbas' word is law.

Egypt
EGYPTIAN authorities seized over a ton of explosives in the Sinai Peninsula, in an area approximately 100 km from the Gaza border. Palestinian militants often use the Gaza border to smuggle in weapons and explosives for internecine fighting and to commit terrorist acts against Israel.

Lebanon
LEBANESE soldiers raided an apartment in Tripoli and seized members and weapons from an al-Qaeda inspired terrorist group. Fatah al-Islam (not to be confused with the mainstream Palestinian group Fatah) has for over a month been in armed battle with Lebanese forces. The group has used Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon as bases, though members from countries throughout the Arab world have been found. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has vowed to arrest or kill members of Fatah al-Islam, which has claimed responsibility for several bombings around Lebanon. Some suspect that the group is being directed by Syria, and its purpose is to destabilize Siniora's anti-Syrian government.

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Friday, June 29, 2007

Thoughts on the foiled London Plot

First off, thank God that the car bombing plot in London failed. And now some thoughts...

There has been some mention of the fact the the cars were filled not only with explosive materials, but also with nails. This is an important point that has not been thoroughly discussed.

Traditional bombs use shockwaves that violently shatter objects and bodies around the blast site. Though traditional bombs are certainly lethal, their effects are felt mainly within the bomb's blast radius, which tend to be quite a limited in area.

The terrorists who planned the car bombings in London, however, were intending not only to kill, but maim as many people as possible. When you introduce nails (or any metal scraps) into a traditional bomb, the effects are felt far outside of the blast radius.

Look at, for example, the M67 hand grenade. The M67 has been in service in the U.S. military since after the Vietnam War to cripple enemy forces it encounters on the battlefield. It is encased in a metal shell that fragments upon explosion. It's effectiveness is not just it's blast radius, which measures approximately 45 feet, but shrapnel that embeds itself into objects and people up to 700 feet away from the blast.

London, however, is no battlefield. The terrorists intended to set off their lethal weapon outside of a nightclub, where scores, if not hundreds, of civilians would be injured or killed. The effects of the nails within the car bomb would have been similar to injuries caused by suicide bombers in Israel. The following is an x-ray of a victim of one such attack where terrorists complimented their explosive vest with nails and other metal objects (as shown on WorldNetDaily):
Even if a victim does not die, he will potentially have the scars of such an attack either visibly or lodged within him forever. Hezbollah (the Lebanese-based Shi'a terrorist organization), during its 2006 war with Israel, packed thousands of ball-bearings within its rockets to cause similar effects.

So once again, thank God this plot failed. But the choice of weapon gives an insight into the depravity of its would-be perpetrators.


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Saturday, June 23, 2007

If Hamas Wants a Voice...

Daniel GP wrote in a comment to a recent post:


Pres. Bush praises Abu Mazen [a.k.a. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas] as a "voice that is a reasonable voice amongst the extremists". But what's the use of a voice in Gaza these days? We need to see results. A Fatah-led government unable or unwilling to stop Palestinian terrorism brings us no closer to peace than does a terrorist Hamas government.
Hamas must now take steps to ensure that it's voice is considered legitimate in the international community and to bring about a better situation for the Palestinians of Gaza. The immediate actions it must take is to enforce order in Gaza, release BBC reporter Alan Johnston, cease all rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel, and release Israeli Defense Force ("IDF") Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

Order

Hamas has already taken a step in the imposition of order in the Gaza Strip by beginning to collect unauthorized weapons. Though after Abbas became the leader of the Palestinian Authority he had promised to maintain "one law, one authority, one gun," he consistently failed to implement that policy. He had not wanted to use force against Palestinians, nor did he want to provoke a civil war. His inaction led exactly to the scenario that he had feared, and thus Hamas is now in charge of Gaza. And Hamas has no qualms about using force to compel compliance with its decisions.

Gaza has been a cesspool of chaos and violence ever since former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to unilaterally pull the Israeli Defense Forces out of the territory. The Palestinians want rule of law, and Hamas can and will enforce order. Once the chaos has ended, the Palestinians of Gaza can speak to the international community in one voice.

Alan Johnston

BBC reporter Alan Johnston was abducted from the Gaza Strip on March 12, 2007. Many foreign journalists had been kidnapped from Gaza in the past, though they were usually returned within a few days. At this point, Johnston has been in captivity for over 100 days, the most time of any of the kidnap victims.

Johnston's abduction has caused the largest international outcry amongst governments and journalists against the Palestinians. Sure, Israelis have been kidnapped, wounded, and brutally murdered, but the international community has taken issue with this incident.

Since conquering Gaza, Hamas has said that it is working to release Johnston. If it succeeds and Johnston is returned alive and unharmed, Hamas will be sending a signal to the world that it respects at least some principles of international behavior.

Stopping the Rockets

Since Israel pulled out of Gaza, Palestinian terrorist groups (including Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad) have increasingly used Qassam rockets to shell nearby Israeli towns. This has continued under the new Hamas regime. If Hamas wants to avert a humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip, it will need Israel's cooperation to bring in food, water, and electricity. And to ensure this cooperation, Hamas must end all Qassam attacks.

Gilad Shalit

On June 25, 2006, several terrorist groups (including Hamas) broke through the border between Israel and Gaza, killed several Israeli soldiers, and kidnapped IDF Cpl. Gilad Shalit. Hamas has not allowed the International Red Cross to visit Shalit, nor has it given any sign of life. The group maintains, however, that Shalit is alive and well.

Almost all Jewish Israelis are required to serve in the IDF. Thus Israelis quite literally view IDF soldiers as their fathers, brothers, sisters, sons and daughters. They are appalled and distressed when any IDF soldier is kidnapped. The capture of Shalit is an especially emotional issue in their conflict with the Palestinians.

The unilateral release of Shalit will instantly change Israelis' view of Hamas. It will prompt an easing of tensions between the two sides, alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, and spur a new hope that peace can be achieved with the Islamist group.

If Hamas releases Shalit, as well as restores order, releases Alan Johnston, and halts rocket fire, Hamas will show that it is an organization that can be dealt with. It will be a voice that Israel and the international community will not only be willing, but excited, to listen to.

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Sunday, June 17, 2007

They're Wrong-A Different View of Hamas' Conquest of the Gaza Strip

For an overview of recent events in the Gaza strip, click here.

Most analysis (i.e. this one from the Jerusalem Post) on Hamas' recent conquest of the Gaza Strip has focussed on the fact that, since Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas sacked the Hamas government, international aid will once again flow to the PA. This will strengthen the moderate tendencies of Abbas and his Fatah party, the thinking goes, and eventually lead to a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank. There will be glaring differences between the situations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians in Gaza, under the harsh rule of Hamas and its thugs and starved of international aid and sympathy, will overthrow the "Islamic Resistance Movement" and reunite with their West Bank brethren, coming under the umbrella of the peace settlement.

This analysis has several faulty assumptions. Number one is that Fatah is a moderate party. Yes, the party may be secular rather than fundamental Islamist, but via its militias Fatah has committed heinous crimes and terrorist acts against Israel. One of those militias is the Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, between 2002-2005 they have been responsible for terrorist attacks resulting in the death of at least 77 Israelis and countless wounded. Their tactics include shooting sprees, sniper attacks, and suicide bombings. The Brigade has often utilized teenagers and women to perpetrate these attacks. More recently (a week ago), the Brigade broke through the barrier between Gaza and Israel in a TV truck in an attempt to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

The second faulty assumption is that Abbas has any control over what happens on the ground in the West Bank. Ever since Abbas came to power in 2005, all of the Palestinian territories have descended into complete chaos and all of the promises & attempts to bring the PA under "one gun" have failed. There is nothing to suggest that this situation will change any time soon, or that members of his own party will abide by any agreement Abbas makes with Israel.

The third misconception is that Palestinians will rebel against Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Hamas will be able to impose something that has been desperately lacking: order. The group has already taken a step that both Abbas and Yasser Arafat were afraid to; they have started confiscating illegal guns. Unfortunately for Israel, Hamas' concept of "illegal" guns are any guns not used to attack the Jewish State. Nonetheless, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip will welcome a new sense of safety and those that do not will lack the weapons to take a stand. In addition, Hamas will continue to get funds for social services from Iran, and the European Union--which has been divided on the economic blockade against Hamas from the beginning--will likely resume aid to the Gaza Strip in the near future.

The difference between the situations in the West Bank & Gaza Strip will indeed be glaring, but not in the way that most analysts currently contend. The West Bank will continue to be chaotic with roaming gangs of gunmen, while the Gaza Strip will be relatively quiet and peaceful. Consequently, Hamas will gain popularity in the West Bank and lead a similar coup in that territory.

The question is whether Israel will be able to take advantage of this scenario. But that is for another posting...

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