Press Release: Center for the Study of Muslim-Jewish Relations

Though I haven't written a new post in months, I thought the following press release was important to share.

Many in the West, including myself, have been critical of the fact that moderate Muslim leaders have not spoken up loudly enough to offer an alternative to the bin Ladens and Ahmadinejads of the world. So when such leaders speak out, I want to make sure that we in the West hear them.

Below is a press release from the Center for the Study of Muslim-Jewish Relations. The next post will contain the letter from the group.

(P.S., Time permitting, I hope to restart this blog in the near future. -Adam)



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PRESS RELEASE

World’s First Cross-Denominational Statement from Muslims to Jews

Leaders from the international Muslim community are to issue a statement to the world’s Jewish Community at the Centre for the Study of Muslim - Jewish Relations in Cambridge on Monday 25 February.

This is the first example of such a gesture from the Muslim to the Jewish community and demonstrates a genuine desire within the Muslim community to reach out to the leaders’ Jewish peers. The letter describes itself as ‘a call for positive and constructive action that aims to improve Muslim – Jewish relations’.

The initiative behind the statement comes from the Muslim members of the Centre for the Study of Muslim – Jewish Relations (CMJR), Cambridge, UK, Dr Amineh Hoti (Director) and Sheikh Michael Mumisa (Lecturer). It will be formally announced following the Centre’s annual Stone – Ashdown lecture* on Monday 25 February.

The signatories of the letter include:

Professor Akbar S Ahmed, Former High Commissioner of Pakistan to the UK and Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies, American University Washington, DC

Professor Bunyamin Duran, Vice-Rector: Islamic University of Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Ambassador Mahmud A. Durrani, Embassy of Pakistan, Washington D.C.

Sayyed Nadeem Kazmi, Director of International Affairs at the Al-Khoei Foundation (the largest Shia Institute in the UK)

Lord Khalid Hameed, High Sheriff of Greater London, UK

Dr Musharraf Hussain, Chief Imam and Director of Karimia Institute, UK

Professor Sari Nusseibeh, President of Al Quds University, Beit Hanina – Jerusalem

Dr Ataullah Saddiqui, Director of Markfield Institute of higher Education

A response from the Jewish community is expected in the days following the announcement. This will also be released by the Centre for the Study of Muslim – Jewish Relations.
For more information or for a press ticket for the lecture on Monday 25 February at 2pm, please contact Esther Haworth, 01223 741048 or esther.haworth@woolfinstitute.cam.ac.uk
Venue: CMJR, Woolf Institute, Wesley House, Jesus Lane, Cambridge. CB5 8BJ

Notes for Editors
About the Woolf Institute of Abrahamic Faiths, the Centre for the Study of Jewish-Christian Relations (CJCR) and the Centre for the Study of Muslim-Jewish Relations (CMJR)

CJCR and CMJR are members of an independent educational charity, the Woolf Institute of Abrahamic Faiths based in Cambridge UK. Through teaching, research and dialogue they are dedicated to the academic study of Jewish-Christian relations and Muslim-Jewish relations respectively.

Under the auspices of the Woolf Institute, they aim to overcome prejudice and intolerance between Jews, Christians and Muslims, and to establish a more positive basis for relations.

CJCR was founded in 1998 by Dr Edward Kessler of St Edmund's College, Cambridge. Its flagship educational programme is the University of Cambridge Master of Studies (MSt) in the Study of Jewish-Christian Relations, which it offers in conjunction with the University’s Faculty of Divinity and the Institute of Continuing Education. The first and only course of its kind, the MSt can be studied in Cambridge or predominantly via e-learning. CJCR also offers a range of other educational programmes and since 1998 has taught over 1000 students, many of whom have gone onto take positions of leadership. CJCR is also an Associate Member of the Cambridge Theological Federation (www.theofed.cam.ac.uk), which provides the Centre with teaching resources and accommodation.

CMJR was founded in 2006 by Dr Edward Kessler and Dr Amineh Hoti as a sister organisation to CJCR and is built on the same core principles of Teaching, Research and Dialogue. CMJR is pleased to work with the University of Cambridge Institute of Continuing Education whose Certificate programme in Islam, Judaism and Muslim-Jewish Relations is offered at the CMJR this academic year. CMJR offers a menu of e-learning courses - 'An Introduction to Muslim-Jewish Relations' - to students of all ages, backgrounds and religious (or non-religious) beliefs. The Centre published its Teacher’s Guide, Valuing Diversity in October 2007 and aims to prepare A Dictionary of Jewish-Muslim Relations, to sit alongside the recently published A Dictionary of Jewish-Christian Relations.

The CJCR and CMJR offices are located in the heart of Cambridge where they are hosted by Methodist Theological College, Wesley House.

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*The CMJR’s annual Stone – Ashdown Lecture is named in honour of the Stone – Ashdown Trust who last year donated £1 million to the Institute.

For more information contact Esther Haworth on 01223-741048, esther.haworth@cam.ac.uk or visit www.woolfinstitute.cam.ac.uk

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Weekend News Wrapup- 8/5/07

Israel and the Palestinian Territories
ISRAELI Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and PA President Mahmoud Abbas are scheduled to meet in the West Bank city of Jericho on Monday. The two are set to formulate a Declaration of Principles for a final settlement of the conflict. This, in turn, will be used as a basis for talks in a regional summit that U.S. Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice has planned for November.

There are several issues, beside final boundaries and a Palestinian "right of return," that complicate efforts for a final settlement. The first is that, after Hamas' bloody coup two months ago, Abbas no longer has any control over the Gaza Strip. The second is that Abbas' Fatah party is still seen by Palestinians as weak and corrupt. Its ability to enforce a peace agreement even in the West Bank is questionable. The third is Olmert's poor standing among Israelis. Olmert is less popular in Israel than President George W. Bush is in the United States, and Israelis may not trust him to ensure a fair and comprehensive peace.

OVER 300 members of terrorist groups associated with PA President Mahmoud Abbas have accepted an amnesty deal from Israel. Israel has promised to take these people aligned with Fatah, all located in the West Bank, off of its wanted list in exchange for them turning in their weapons and swearing off attacks on the Jewish State. The amnesty deal is part of a package of gestures that Israel is using to bolster Abbas' standing in the Palestinian territories.

Interestingly, members of Islamic Jihad, an Islamist terrorist group opposed to peace with Israel, have requested to be included in the amnesty. The Islamic Jihad leadership, however, has lambasted the amnesty and reaffirmed its commitment to destroy Israel.

Lebanon
RESIDENTS of the Christian city of Metn have gone to the polls to replace two assassinated Members of Parliament. Amin Gemayal, former president of Lebanon and father of one of the slain MP's, is contesting for his son's seat. His opponent is Kamil Khoury. Both candidates are Christian, though Gemayal is associated with the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Sinora while Khoury is aligned with the pro-Syria, Hezbollah-led opposition. The other seat is only being contested by pro-Western politician Mohammed al-Amin Itani.

MP's Pierre Gemayal and Walid Eido were murdered within the last year. Syria is suspected to be behind the slayings.

Iran
IRANIAN President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called on Israel to "go somewhere else." He stated that Israel should leave the region and a Palestinian state should crop up in its place. This comes after he has declared that Israel should be "wiped off the map" and hosted a Holocaust-denial conference.

His statement should also be viewed in the context of Iran's nuclear program. Iran has refused to suspend its nuclear activities, which the Islamic Republic has argued is purely for energy production. Western powers, however, are convinced it is also being used to develop a nuclear weapons program.

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The Arab League in Israel?

"Wednesday's visit was the first by Arab League representatives to promote their peace plan," remarked an article in al-Jazeera.

The author was referring to a trip by the Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers to the Jewish State, where they met with the Israeli Prime Minister, foreign and defense ministers, and president. The purpose of the trip was to promote the Arab League's Saudi Peace Initiative for a resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Mark Regev, Israel's foreign ministry spokesman, agreed with al-Jazeera over the nature of the visit: “This is the first time that a delegation is coming here under the auspices of the Arab League.’’

But Amr Moussa, the Secretary General of the Arab League, vigorously denied that the foreign ministers represented his organization: "They are not acting under the banner of the Arab League. They represent two Arab countries that for certain circumstances entered into peace accords and official diplomatic relations."

So what's the fuss about? Why would Moussa offer such a fervent repudiation of any connection between the ministers' mission and the Arab League?

The answer, it seems to me, is that old animosities die hard. Though the League was created in 1945, in 1944 representatives from Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon gathered to discuss the future institution. The result was the Alexandria Protocol, which spelled out the goals of the Arab League.

One of those goals was to end Jewish immigration into what was then British Mandate Palestine. Later, shortly after the Arab League was finalized, the League passed a resolution that stated, "Jewish products and manufactured goods shall be considered undesirable to the Arab countries" and that all Arab "institutions, organizations, merchants, commission agents and individuals" must "refuse to deal in, distribute, or consume Zionist products or manufactured goods."

Since then--when the leaders of Arab League member states weren't calling for the Jews to be thrown in the sea, or denouncing Israel at the U.N., or supporting groups that kill Israeli civilians--the League has tried to ignore Israel. Pretend it doesn't exist, that it is not part of the region.

But lately there have been forces in the Middle East that can't be ignored: the rise of both al-Qaeda and Iran. Though Saudi Arabia once thought it could contain al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization has perpetrated attacks throughout the Middle East, including within Saudi territory. And Iran--whose Persian, Shi'ite version of Islam is an anathema to most Arab countries--has grown increasingly bellicose.

In order to counter these forces, and ease internal tensions, Saudi Arabia came up with a plan that was approved by the Arab League in 2002 and reaffirmed in 2006. The Saudi Peace Initiative calls for full Arab recognition of Israel in return for 1) Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and east Jerusalem; 2) the creation of a Palestinian State; and 3) a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem in accordance with U.N. Resolution 194 (which the Arab public takes to mean that Palestinians should be allowed to resettle in Israel).

The Arab League expects Israel to carry out its obligations before gaining diplomatic recognition from the Arab states. So even though the League has certified the Initiative and authorized the Jordanian and Egyptian foreign ministers to speak to Israel in order to promote it, the Arab League bristles at any suggestion that it is dealing with the "Zionist regime."

If it truly envisions peace between Israel and its neighbors, the Arab League must end these petty denials. This way, Israel and the international community will know that the League desires a friendly, safe, and prosperous future more than it dwells on past hostilities.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 7/22/07

Israel and the Palestinian Territories
PALESTINIAN Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has apparently made good on his pledge to crack down on Hamas in the West Bank. On Sunday his security services arrested 22 rival Hamas operatives in a 24-hour campaign against the terrorist group. This comes as members of terrorist groups associated with Abbas' Fatah party have pledged to end their attacks on Israel and turned in their weapons in return for being removed from Israel's wanted list. The question remains as to how many individuals have made that pledge, and whether Abbas is willing and able to enforce an end to attacks on Israel from his own party.

Syria
IRANIAN President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met in Damascus this past week with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Assad and Ahmadinejad reportedly struck a deal where Iran would fund for Syria $1 billion worth of advance weapons--including fighter jets, tanks, and missiles--and aid in Syrian nuclear and chemical weapons research. In return, Assad reportedly promised not to seek peace with Israel. Iran has denied the deal.

Turkey
EXIT Polls in Turkey's parliamentary elections show the religious-oriented Justice and Development Party [which goes by its Turkish initials "AKP"] won in a landslide against strictly secular parties. Preliminary polls give AKP 51.6%, while left-leaning Republican People's Party ["CHP"] won 15.2% and far-right National Action Party ["MHP"] won 13.7%.

The AKP is more accurately compared to the religious right in the U.S. rather than other "Islamist parties" such as Hamas in the Palestinian territories or Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is considered pro-business, and has overseen annual GDP growth of 7%. It also has worked to conform Turkish laws to fit European Union standards. But it wishes to permit more public expressions of religion in Turkey, such as allowing women to wear head-coverings in public universities or allowing politicians to publicly proclaim their faith. Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, imposed a strict separation of Mosque and State.

In recent months there has been tension between the current AKP government and the military, which considers itself the guardian of Turkish secularism. The military has initiated four coups since the 1960's; the latest occurred in 1997 when Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan was pressured to step down due to his militant Islamist views. The AKP has much milder views than Erbakan, but the military has accused the party of undermining Turkey's secular character.

In Turkish elections, voters select parties rather than candidates. The party with the most votes wins the most seats in the 550 member parliament. A party must receive at least 10% of the vote to gain seats. If a party takes more than 50% of the seats, they form the government; if no party receives an absolute majority of the seats, several parties may form a coalition government.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 7/15/07

A Summary of Interesting Stories throughout the Middle East

Israel and the Palestinian Territories
THE Foreign Ministers of Egypt and Jordan have postponed their trip to Israel until July 25th. The ministers had planned to visit Israel this past week to discuss the Saudi Peace Initiative, which envisions full Arab recognition of Israel in return for Israeli withdrawal from all of Gaza, West Bank, and East Jerusalem; the implementation of a Palestinian Right to Return; and the creation of a Palestinian state. Israel has accepted the Saudi initiative with reservations: 1) it will not grant a Right of Return to Israel itself, as that would lead to the demographic destruction of Israel as a Jewish State (though it supports a Right of Return to a future Palestinian State in the West Bank & Gaza); and 2) all of Jerusalem is Israel's eternal and undivided capital.

The postponement of the trip comes as Israel and the Arab League publicly voice their disagreement over the nature of the delegation. The Arab League had appointed Egypt and Jordan to discuss the Saudi Peace Initiative with Israel. Egypt and Jordan then announced that their Foreign Ministers would visit Israel to discuss the plan. Israel subsequently heralded the ministers' trip as the first time that the Arab League would send an official mission to the Jewish State. But the Secretary General of the Arab League balked at that description, stating that the ministers were only representing the governments of Egypt and Jordan. He further remarked, "The Arab League has no relation with Israel."

PALESTINIAN Authority ("PA") Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has confirmed PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad as head of a care-taker government. Fayyad had been serving as leader of an emergency government since Abbas dismissed Hamas ministers following their bloody coup in Gaza. Hamas spokesmen have deemed Fayyad's government "illegal" because, according to the PA constitution, the government must be confirmed by the PA parliament. The parliament, however, has been paralyzed due to Hamas' refusal to stand down in Gaza, Israel's imprisonment of half of Hamas members of parliament, and Abbas' refusal to allow his Fatah party to meet with members of Hamas.

ELDER statesman Shimon Peres has been sworn in as Israel's ninth president. Shimon Peres has been associated with each stage of Israel's history: he has served in almost every ministry since the founding of the state, including as prime minister; he was the architect of Israel's nuclear program and policy; and he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 along with Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat for his work in attempting to bring peace between Israel and its neighbors. Though the presidency is largely ceremonial (somewhat akin to the monarchy in Britain), Peres is an internationally respected figure and will bring much-needed positive attention to the Jewish State.

Lebanon
REPRESENTATIVES from 14 Lebanese parties have met in France in an attempt to ease political deadlock within the Arab state. Included in the meeting are delegates from Hezbollah, an organization that many Western and Arab countries view as perpetuating terrorism and instability.

Following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Shi'ite organization briefly had a wide following among Lebanese for its perceived victory over Israel. But it has since been widely criticized for starting the conflict when it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Hundreds of Lebanese citizens died, and there were millions of dollars worth of damage because Hezbollah based its military operations in civilian areas.

Furthermore, Hezbollah is criticized for attempting to block the international tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; for walking out of the Lebanese government and helping to block the convening of sessions of parliament; and for holding the interests of Syria and Iran above those of Lebanon.

Iran
AN Iranian article claiming that the Arab Kingdom of Bahrain is Iranian territory has caused fury around the Arab world (Click here for a regional map of Bahrain). Hossein Shariatmadari, a close confidant of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini, wrote that "public demand in Bahrain is the reunification of this province with its motherland, the Islamic Iran." The foreign minister of Iran has since traveled to Bahrain in order to quell tensions.

Historically there has been friction between Iran, a Farsi-speaking majority Shi'ite state, and Bahrain, an Arabic-speaking Sunni-led country. In the 1970's Iran laid claim to Bahrain, but the then British protectorate instead voted for independence. In recent times, Arab states of the Persian Gulf and throughout the Mideast have looked at Iran's growing influence and nuclear program with suspicion.

Citizens of Bahrain have gathered in front of the Iranian embassy in protest. Furthermore Egypt, the most populous Arab state, has railed against Shariatmadari's statements. So has the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Bahrain is a member along with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

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Weekend News Wrapup- 7/8/07

A Summary of Interesting Stories throughout the Middle East

Israel & the Palestinian Territories
FOR the first time, representatives of the Arab League will make an official visit to Israel this coming Thursday. The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan--appointed by the Arab League to promote the Saudi Peace Initiative--will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

The Saudi Initiative calls for Israel to withdraw from all lands it captured in the 1967 Six Day War, including East Jerusalem, and implement a Palestinian right to return in exchange for full Arab recognition of Israel. PM Olmert has welcomed the plan, though has reservations on a pull back from East Jerusalem (which is part of Israel's capital) and resettlement of Palestinians in Israel proper.

The Arab League has traditionally been hostile to Israel, so this visit will indeed be a historic occasion. Upon its creation in 1945, the organization resolved to boycott all Jewish products originating from what was then British Mandate Palestine. The Arab League expanded the boycott when Israel gained independence in 1948. To this day, most Arab League member states continue to boycott products and services from Israel, and some states refuse to do business with any company that engages with Israel.

ISLAMIC Jihad and Hamas claimed responsibility for firing several Kassam rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip. The rockets caused no casualties, though a university building sustained damages.

PALESTINIAN lawyers have questioned the constitutionality of Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas' decision to appoint a new government without parliament's approval. Abbas tapped former World Bank official Salam Fayyad to head the government after firing Hamas representatives because of the violent coup staged in Gaza.

The Palestinian lawyers, who helped draft the constitution which was implemented in 2002, claim that Abbas was permitted to fire the Hamas lawmakers from the cabinet, but could not appoint a new government. The lawyers further stated that Abbas could not suspend parts of the constitution. Representative of Abbas responded that the PA is in a state of emergency, and thus Abbas' word is law.

Egypt
EGYPTIAN authorities seized over a ton of explosives in the Sinai Peninsula, in an area approximately 100 km from the Gaza border. Palestinian militants often use the Gaza border to smuggle in weapons and explosives for internecine fighting and to commit terrorist acts against Israel.

Lebanon
LEBANESE soldiers raided an apartment in Tripoli and seized members and weapons from an al-Qaeda inspired terrorist group. Fatah al-Islam (not to be confused with the mainstream Palestinian group Fatah) has for over a month been in armed battle with Lebanese forces. The group has used Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon as bases, though members from countries throughout the Arab world have been found. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has vowed to arrest or kill members of Fatah al-Islam, which has claimed responsibility for several bombings around Lebanon. Some suspect that the group is being directed by Syria, and its purpose is to destabilize Siniora's anti-Syrian government.

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On Bolstering Abbas

In a historic meeting between the leaders of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and Egypt, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has promised to transfer $35o million to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He also promised to release 250 Palestinian prisoners as a show of good faith. This announcement comes shortly after the United States and the European Union decided to lift the economic embargo against the Palestinian Authority, a result of Abbas sacking the Hamas government.

King Abdullah of Jordan and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak voiced their support for Abbas. The Quartet of Middle East Mediators (the U.S., U.N., E.U., and Russia) met today in Jerusalem, suggesting that they believe Israel can work with Abbas as a partner for peace. The Quartet has not quashed rumors that outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair will be its new envoy, further suggesting the group sees new momemtum for a peace process.

So is all of this faith that the international community (including Israel) has in Abbas misplaced? In previous posts (From the Horse's Mouth, They're Wrong) I have written how Abbas and his Fatah party are just as bad, if not worse, than Hamas because Abbas says all the right things but has no power or will to implement hard decisions. He gives hope to the Israelis, Palestinians, and international community yet always disappoints, leading to dispair and worse violence.

But shouldn't Israel and the international community at least try to work towards a peace settlement with Abbas, the "voice of moderation?" My mind and my gut says absolutely not, but the remnants of my bleeding heart liberalism past says perhaps. However, there must be strict monitering of any money, weapons, or prisoners released to Abbas & Fatah. Furthermore, Abbas & Fatah must meet certain benchmarks in order to show that they are truly partners. These include:

• Disbanding and disarming all non-state militias, including Fatah-related militias such as the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and Tanzim.
• Creating and enforcing a zero tolerance policy for crime and corruption.
• Ending all media incitement against Israel.

Once Abbas takes these steps, he will have proven that he is willing to make and implement difficult decisions. Only then can Israel and the international community take any further actions to bolster Abbas and work toward peace and a Palestinian state. If Abbas fails to take these steps, which he likely will, then Israel and all those who desire for peace must look for a different path.

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From the Horse's Mouth: They're Terrorists

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has finally come to the obvious conclusion: Hamas is a terrorist organization. Specifically, he said that members of this Palestinian Islamist party are "murderous terrorists." This should not be a radical statement, considering that (according to the Council on Foreign Relations) the group has killed over 500 people since 1993 using tactics including short-range rockets, small arms fire, and suicide bombings. Many, if not most, of the victims were innocent civilians. But it took the humiliation of Abbas' Fatah party in Gaza for him to finally see the light.

But, as I wrote in a previous posting, Abbas' party is no better. In fact, it may even be worse. With governments all over the world committed to Abbas' "moderate ideology," they continue to overlook the fact that Fatah does not have the discipline to commit its members, let alone non-Fatah Palestinians, to any peace settlement. Simply put, any agreement signed by Abbas wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on. And it is exactly this faux-agreement the global powers are pushing for.

It's no coincidence that Fatah was completely overpowered in the Gaza Strip. Even though Fatah had more gunmen, firepower, and Western-backing, Hamas had cohesion. They had the organization and common goals to forge ahead. This is why Hamas will eventually be the ruling power in all of the Palestinian territories.

Yes, Hamas is a terrorist group. And yes, Hamas (at least some parts) is committed to Israel's destruction. But they will see in their governance of Gaza that they have to deal with Israel, or else their "constituents" will die. They will have no food, water, or electricity, unless at least some coordination is made with the Jewish State. This may lead the way to future understandings, and possibly to a future peace deal, which they would have the power to enforce.

Richard Nixon opened relations with China. Menachem Begin signed an accord with Egypt. Hamas could be the key to peace with the Palestinians.

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They're Wrong-A Different View of Hamas' Conquest of the Gaza Strip

For an overview of recent events in the Gaza strip, click here.

Most analysis (i.e. this one from the Jerusalem Post) on Hamas' recent conquest of the Gaza Strip has focussed on the fact that, since Palestinian Authority ("PA") President Mahmoud Abbas sacked the Hamas government, international aid will once again flow to the PA. This will strengthen the moderate tendencies of Abbas and his Fatah party, the thinking goes, and eventually lead to a peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank. There will be glaring differences between the situations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians in Gaza, under the harsh rule of Hamas and its thugs and starved of international aid and sympathy, will overthrow the "Islamic Resistance Movement" and reunite with their West Bank brethren, coming under the umbrella of the peace settlement.

This analysis has several faulty assumptions. Number one is that Fatah is a moderate party. Yes, the party may be secular rather than fundamental Islamist, but via its militias Fatah has committed heinous crimes and terrorist acts against Israel. One of those militias is the Al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, between 2002-2005 they have been responsible for terrorist attacks resulting in the death of at least 77 Israelis and countless wounded. Their tactics include shooting sprees, sniper attacks, and suicide bombings. The Brigade has often utilized teenagers and women to perpetrate these attacks. More recently (a week ago), the Brigade broke through the barrier between Gaza and Israel in a TV truck in an attempt to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

The second faulty assumption is that Abbas has any control over what happens on the ground in the West Bank. Ever since Abbas came to power in 2005, all of the Palestinian territories have descended into complete chaos and all of the promises & attempts to bring the PA under "one gun" have failed. There is nothing to suggest that this situation will change any time soon, or that members of his own party will abide by any agreement Abbas makes with Israel.

The third misconception is that Palestinians will rebel against Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Hamas will be able to impose something that has been desperately lacking: order. The group has already taken a step that both Abbas and Yasser Arafat were afraid to; they have started confiscating illegal guns. Unfortunately for Israel, Hamas' concept of "illegal" guns are any guns not used to attack the Jewish State. Nonetheless, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip will welcome a new sense of safety and those that do not will lack the weapons to take a stand. In addition, Hamas will continue to get funds for social services from Iran, and the European Union--which has been divided on the economic blockade against Hamas from the beginning--will likely resume aid to the Gaza Strip in the near future.

The difference between the situations in the West Bank & Gaza Strip will indeed be glaring, but not in the way that most analysts currently contend. The West Bank will continue to be chaotic with roaming gangs of gunmen, while the Gaza Strip will be relatively quiet and peaceful. Consequently, Hamas will gain popularity in the West Bank and lead a similar coup in that territory.

The question is whether Israel will be able to take advantage of this scenario. But that is for another posting...

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